The Crosstab model provided an updated forecast of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 35.4% of the two-party vote share in North Dakota, while Trump will end up with 64.6%. In comparison, on November 5 Trump was predicted to gain 64.0% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Individual models may include substantial biases, and should be treated with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single models, research in forecasting recommends to rely on combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on different methods and data.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote expects Trump to gain 60.3% of the two-party vote in North Dakota. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 4.3 percentage points less compared to the results of the Crosstab model.