Quinnipiac released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from North Carolina were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Quinnipiac poll results
According to the results, 48.0% of participants indicated to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 45.0% plan to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted between November 3 and November 6. The sample size was 870 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.3 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Single polls often include large errors, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. At the very least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, we convert them into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 51.6% for Clinton and 48.4% for Trump. On October 26 Clinton obtained 53.2% in the Quinnipiac poll and Trump obtained only 46.8%.
Results compared to other polls
An average of recent polls in North Carolina sees Clinton at 49.2% of the two-party vote. This value is 2.4 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Quinnipiac poll. This margin is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The current PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 50.3% of the two-party vote in North Carolina. That is, Polly's forecast is 1.3 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's sampling error.