Results of a new poll carried out by NY Times/SienaNY Times/Siena were spread. The poll asked interviewees from North Carolina for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
NY Times/SienaNY Times/Siena poll results
The results show that billionaire Donald Trump and former First Lady Hillary Clinton have identical levels of support, each with 44.0% of the vote.
The poll was conducted from November 4 to November 6. A total of 800 likely voters responded. Considering the poll's error margin of +/-3.5 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be regarded with caution, because they often incorporate substantial errors. At the very least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, you can convert them into two-party vote shares. The results of the actual poll mean 50.0 % for Clinton and 50.0 % for Trump for the two-party vote share.
Results in comparison to other polls
Clinton currently runs at 49.4% of the two-party vote in an average of recent polls in North Carolina. In comparison to the average forecast of other polls Clinton performed 0.7 percentage points better in the poll. This difference is outside the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 50.3% and Trump 49.8% of the two-party vote in North Carolina. Clinton has 0.3 percentage points less when the results of the poll are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast for North Carolina. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error shows that this deviation is significant.