On November 6, Siena released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from New York were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Siena poll results
The results show that 57.0% of interviewees would cast a ballot for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 32.0% plan to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from January 31 to February 3 among 930 registered voters. The sampling error is +/-3.8 points. This means that the levels of voter support for Trump and Clinton differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single polls, because they often contain large errors. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The corresponding figures are 64.0% for Clinton and 36.0% for Trump. On October 17 Clinton received 64.3% in the Siena poll and Trump received only 35.7%.
Results compared to other polls
An average of recent polls in New York has Clinton at 62.4% of the two-party vote. This value is 1.6 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Siena poll. This margin is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The latest PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 63.2% of the two-party vote in New York. This means that Polly's combined forecast is 0.8 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus within the poll's margin of error.