UPI/CVOTER released the results of a new national poll, in which respondents were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
UPI/CVOTER poll results
Of those who replied, 49.0% said that they will vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 46.0% revealed that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The Internet poll was carried out between October 30 and November 5. The sample size was 1572 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-2.5 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Hence, you should not have too much faith in the results of a single poll. At the very least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, one can convert them into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure yields figures of 51.6% for Clinton and 48.4% for Trump. In the most recent UPI/CVOTER poll on November 3 Clinton obtained only 50.5%, while Trump obtained 49.5%.
Results compared to other polls
Looking at an average of polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 51.8%. In comparison to her numbers in the UPI/CVOTER poll Clinton's poll average is 0.2 percentage points higher. This deviation is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 52.6% of the two-party vote. This means that the PollyVote forecast is 1.0 point above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error shows that this difference is insignificant.