PPIC published the results of a new poll on November 6. In this poll, interviewees from California were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
PPIC poll results
Of those who responded, 54.0% said that they will vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 28.0% indicated that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from October 14 to October 23, among a random sample of 1024 likely voters. The margin of error is +/-4.3 percentage points, which means that the poll results for Clinton and Trump differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be treated with caution, as they can include substantial errors. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, we recommend to rely on combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
In order to make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, we convert them into two-party vote shares. This procedure yields figures of 65.9% for Clinton and 34.2% for Trump.
Results vs. other polls
Clinton can currently count on 63.0% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent polls in California. This value is 2.9 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the PPIC poll. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The current PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 62.3% of the two-party vote in California. That is, the PollyVote is 3.6 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error reveals that this difference is insignificant.