Results of a new poll administered by Zia PollZia Poll were circulated on November 6. The poll asked interviewees from New Mexico for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
Zia PollZia Poll poll results
Of those who responded, 46.0% said that they plan to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 44.0% indicated that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from November 6 to November 6 among 8439 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-1.8 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single polls, because they may contain large errors. At least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure yields figures of 51.1% for Clinton and 48.9% for Trump. In the latest Zia PollZia Poll poll on September 25 Clinton obtained 53.2%, while Trump obtained only 46.8%.
Results in comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of New Mexico polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 52.0%. This value is 0.9 percentage points higher than her respective numbers in the Zia PollZia Poll poll. This deviation is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 55.7% of the two-party vote in New Mexico. That is, Polly's forecast is 4.6 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus outside the poll's margin of error.