On November 6, Zia PollZia Poll released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from New Mexico were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
Zia PollZia Poll poll results
The results show that 46.0% of participants indicated that they would give their vote to former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 43.0% would vote for businessman Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from November 1 to November 2, among a random sample of 1102 likely voters. Given the poll's error margin of +/-3.0 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls may incorporate substantial biases, which is why they should be treated with caution. Rather than relying on results from single polls, you should use combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
For the following analysis, we convert the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 51.7% for Clinton and 48.3% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton can currently count on 52.3% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent polls in New Mexico. Compared to her numbers in the Zia PollZia Poll poll Clinton's poll average is 0.6 percentage points higher. This difference is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 55.7% of the two-party vote in New Mexico. Hence, Polly's forecast is 4.0 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore outside the poll's sampling error.