Zia PollZia Poll released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from New Mexico were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
Zia PollZia Poll poll results
Of those who answered the question, 42.0% said that they will vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 37.0% declared that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from September 24 to September 25 with 1415 likely voters. Considering the poll's error margin of +/-2.6 percentage points, the spread between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be regarded with caution, as they often include large biases. Rather than relying on results from single polls, forecasting research recommends to consult combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, you can convert them into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure results in figures of 53.2% for Clinton and 46.8% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton is currently at 0.0% of the two-party vote in an average of recent polls in New Mexico. This value is 53.2 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the Zia PollZia Poll poll. This difference is outside the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's forecast
The current PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 56.0% of the two-party vote in New Mexico. This means that the PollyVote forecast is 2.8 points above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin suggests that this difference is significant.