New Mexico: Crosstab model shows Clinton in the lead

The Crosstab model released an updated prediction of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will collect 54.2% of the two-party vote share in New Mexico, while Trump will win 45.8%. In comparison, on November 4 Trump was predicted to achieve 45.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single models, since they sometimes contain large errors. At the very least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

Clinton currently achieves 0.0% of the two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models in New Mexico. In comparison to her numbers in the Crosstab model Clinton's econometric model average is 54.2 percentage points lower.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 56.0% of the two-party vote in New Mexico. The results of the Crosstab model for Clinton are thus 1.8 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in New Mexico. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 1.5 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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