LA Times released the results of a new national poll, in which respondents were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
LA Times poll results
The results show that 43.0% of interviewees plan to give their vote to former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 48.0% plan to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out between October 29 and November 4. The sample size was 2987 participants. The margin of error is +/-4.5 percentage points. This means that the poll results for Trump and Clinton do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, one should not rely too much on the results of an individual poll. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, we recommend to use combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that uses different methods and data.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, one can convert them into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure results in values of 47.3% for Clinton and 52.8% for Trump. To compare: 47.8% was obtained by Clinton in the LA Times poll on November 3, for Trump this number was only 52.2%.
Comparison to other polls
Looking at an average of polls, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 48.2%. This value is 4.7 percentage points lower than his respective numbers in the LA Times poll. This margin is outside the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The current PollyVote expects Trump to gain 47.3% of the two-party vote. This means that Polly's combined forecast is 5.5 points below his polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore outside the poll's sampling error.