Results of a new poll conducted by JMC Analytics were released on November 6. The poll asked participants from Louisiana for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
JMC Analytics poll results
Of those who responded, 35.0% said that they will vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 45.0% indicated that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from September 22 to September 24, among a random sample of 905 likely voters. The margin of error is +/-3.3 points. This means that the poll results for both parties' candidates differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be treated with caution, since they can contain large errors. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure results in figures of 43.8% for Clinton and 56.3% for Trump.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The most recent PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 58.5% of the two-party vote in Louisiana. That is, Polly's combined forecast is 2.2 points above his polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error suggests that this difference is negligible.