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New IBD/TIPP poll: Clinton and Trump in a virtual tie

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IBD/TIPP released the results of a new national poll, in which respondents were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.

IBD/TIPP poll results
45

Clinton

44

Trump

According to the results, 45.0% of interviewees said that they would give their vote to former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 44.0% are going to vote for businessman Donald Trump.

The phone poll was conducted between November 2 and November 5. The sample size was 903 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.3 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they often incorporate large errors. At least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, you can convert them into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 50.6% for Clinton and 49.4% for Trump. To compare: 51.7% was gained by Clinton in the IBD/TIPP poll on November 4, for Trump this result was only 48.3%.

Results in comparison to other polls

Clinton currently achieves 51.8% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent polls. This value is 1.2 percentage points higher than her respective numbers in the IBD/TIPP poll. This difference is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 52.6% of the two-party vote. That is, Polly's forecast is 2.0 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's margin of error.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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