IBD/TIPP released the results of a new national poll, in which respondents were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
IBD/TIPP poll results
According to the results, 45.0% of interviewees said that they would give their vote to former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 44.0% are going to vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The phone poll was conducted between November 2 and November 5. The sample size was 903 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.3 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they often incorporate large errors. At least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, you can convert them into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 50.6% for Clinton and 49.4% for Trump. To compare: 51.7% was gained by Clinton in the IBD/TIPP poll on November 4, for Trump this result was only 48.3%.
Results in comparison to other polls
Clinton currently achieves 51.8% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent polls. This value is 1.2 percentage points higher than her respective numbers in the IBD/TIPP poll. This difference is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 52.6% of the two-party vote. That is, Polly's forecast is 2.0 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's margin of error.