New Hampshire: Crosstab model shows Clinton in the lead

The Crosstab model published an updated prediction of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will collect 53.2% of the two-party vote share in New Hampshire, whereas Trump will win 46.8%.

In New Hampshire, the election outcome is usually decided by a narrow margin. This is the reason why the state is commonly considered a swing state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, don't be overly confident the results of an individual econometric model. Instead of trusting the results from single models, the best practice scientific advice is to look at combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on different methods and data.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The latest PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 53.1% of the two-party vote in New Hampshire. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 0.1 percentage points less compared to the results of the Crosstab model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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