Goucher College published the results of a new poll on November 6. In this poll, respondents from Maryland were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
Goucher College poll results
Of those who replied, 58.0% said that they are going to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 25.0% revealed that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was in the field between September 17 and September 20. The sample size was 514 likely voters. Taking into account the poll's sampling error of +/-4.3 percentage points, the difference in voter support is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they can incorporate large errors. At the very least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we convert Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This procedure yields figures of 69.9% for Clinton and 30.1% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton currently runs at 69.4% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in Maryland. This value is 0.5 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Goucher College poll. This deviation is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 66.0% of the two-party vote in Maryland. Hence, the combined PollyVote is 3.9 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's error margin.