Results of a new poll administered by Fort Hays St. University were spread on November 5. The poll asked participants from Kansas for whom they will vote: Donald·Trump or Hillary·Clinton.
Fort Hays St. University poll results
Of those who replied, 34.0% said that they will vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 58.0% revealed that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from November 1 to November 3. A total of 313 likely voters responded. The sampling error is +/-0.1 percentage points. This means that the levels of voter support for Clinton and Trump differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be interpreted with caution, as they often contain large biases. Rather than relying on results from single polls, the best practice is to look at combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
In order to make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, we translate them into shares of the two-party vote. The respective figures are 37.0% for Clinton and 63.0% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in Kansas has Trump at 0.0% of the two-party vote. In comparison to his numbers in the Fort Hays St. University poll Trump's poll average is 63 percentage points worse. This deviation is outside the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 57.3% of the two-party vote in Kansas. That is, the combined PollyVote is 5.7 points below his polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error shows that this deviation is significant.