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New Bloomberg/Selzer poll: Clinton and Trump in a dead heat


Results of a new national poll administered by Bloomberg/Selzer were announced. The poll asked respondents for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.

Bloomberg/Selzer poll results




Of those who replied, 46.0% said that they will vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 43.0% indicated that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.

The phone poll was carried out from November 4 to November 6 with 799 likely voters. The error margin is +/-3.5 points. This means that the poll results for the candidates of both parties do not differ significantly.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single polls, because they often incorporate large errors. At least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

To make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, one can convert them into shares of the two-party vote. The respective figures are 51.7% for Clinton and 48.3% for Trump. For comparison: 55.0% was gained by Clinton in the Bloomberg/Selzer poll on October 17, for Trump this number was only 45.1%.

Results in comparison to other polls

An average of recent polls sees Clinton at 51.9% of the two-party vote. Compared to her numbers in the Bloomberg/Selzer poll Clinton's poll average is 0.2 percentage points higher. This deviation is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 52.5% of the two-party vote. That is, the PollyVote is 0.8 points above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error suggests that this difference is insignificant.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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