Remington Research (R) released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Nevada were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Nevada is traditionally a purple state, where the Democrats and the GOP have often won similar voter support. Hence, the election outcome in that state is regarded important in determining the overall result of the presidential election.
Remington Research (R) poll results
Of those who answered the question, 45.0% said that they intend to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 46.0% indicated that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from November 1 to November 2 with 1793 likely voters. The sampling error is +/-2.3 percentage points, which means that the levels of voter support for Clinton and Trump do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, you should not be too confident the results of an individual poll. Rather than relying on results from single polls, the best practice is to rely on combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on different methods and data.
For the following comparison, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The corresponding figures are 49.5% for Clinton and 50.6% for Trump. In the most recent Remington Research (R) poll on October 30 Clinton received only 47.8%, while Trump received 52.2%.
Results vs. other polls
Trump currently runs at 50.9% of the two-party vote in an average of recent polls in Nevada. This value is 0.3 percentage points higher than his respective numbers in the Remington Research (R) poll. This deviation is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The latest PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 48.0% of the two-party vote in Nevada. That is, Polly's combined forecast is 2.6 points below his polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin shows that this deviation is significant.