Results of a new poll carried out by Emerson were announced on October 18. The poll asked interviewees from Nevada for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
In Nevada, the election outcome is often close. This is the reason why the state is commonly viewed as a swing state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.
Emerson poll results
According to the results, 47.0% of interviewees indicated that they would give their vote to former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 46.0% would vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from November 4 to November 5 among 600 likely voters. Given the poll's margin of error of +/-3.9 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. As a result, don't rely too much on the results of an individual poll. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, we recommend to look at combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on different methods and data.
For the following comparison, we convert Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure results in figures of 50.5% for Clinton and 49.5% for Trump. In the most recent Emerson poll on October 27 Clinton received 51.2%, while Trump received only 48.8%.
Results compared to other polls
If we look at an average of Nevada polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 49.2%. In comparison to her numbers in the Emerson poll Clinton's poll average is 1.4 percentage points worse. This difference is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 52.1% of the two-party vote in Nevada. That is, Polly's forecast is 1.6 points above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin indicates that this difference is negligible.