Results of a new poll carried out by Emerson were announced on October 18. The poll asked respondents from Nevada for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
Historically, Nevada has been a purple state, in which neither of the two major parties has had overwhelming support to secure that state's electoral college votes. This is the reason why forecasts in this state are of particular importance.
Emerson poll results
The results show that 44.0% of interviewees would vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 42.0% would vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out between October 26 and October 27. The sample size was 550 likely voters. The margin of error is +/-4.1 percentage points. This means that the levels of voter support for Clinton and Trump do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be treated with caution, because they often contain substantial errors. At the very least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure results in figures of 51.2% for Clinton and 48.8% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in Nevada has Clinton at 48.9% of the two-party vote. This value is 2.3 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Emerson poll. This margin is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 52.0% of the two-party vote in Nevada. That is, the PollyVote forecast is 0.8 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's margin of error.