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Montana: Crosstab model shows Trump in the lead

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The Crosstab model is part of the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. It currently forecasts a major vote share of 39.9% for Clinton, and 60.1% for Trump in Montana. In comparison, on November 3 Trump was predicted to gain 59.5% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single models, because they sometimes incorporate large errors. At least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

If we look at an average of Montana econometric models, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 0.0%. This value is 60.1 percentage points lower than his corresponding numbers in the Crosstab model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The latest PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 56.9% of the two-party vote in Montana. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 3.2 percentage points less compared to the results of the Crosstab model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 12.8 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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