Emerson published the results of a new poll on November 1. In this poll, respondents from Missouri were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
Emerson poll results
The results show that 41.0% of participants plan to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 47.0% would vote for businessman Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from November 4 to November 5, among a random sample of 750 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.5 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls may incorporate large biases, which is why they should be treated with caution. At least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This procedure yields figures of 46.6% for Clinton and 53.4% for Trump. In the most recent Emerson poll on September 13 Clinton obtained only 42.0%, while Trump obtained 58.0%.
Results vs. other polls
Trump currently achieves 55.3% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in Missouri. Compared to his numbers in the Emerson poll Trump's poll average is 1.9 percentage points better. This margin is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The current PollyVote expects Trump to gain 54.2% of the two-party vote in Missouri. That is, the combined PollyVote is 0.8 points above his polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin suggests that this difference is negligible.