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Missouri: New Emerson poll shows Trump with 6 points lead

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Emerson published the results of a new poll on November 1. In this poll, respondents from Missouri were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.

Emerson poll results
41

Clinton

47

Trump

The results show that 41.0% of participants plan to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 47.0% would vote for businessman Donald Trump.

This poll was conducted from November 4 to November 5, among a random sample of 750 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.5 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.

Putting the results in context

Individual polls may incorporate large biases, which is why they should be treated with caution. At least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

For the following analysis, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This procedure yields figures of 46.6% for Clinton and 53.4% for Trump. In the most recent Emerson poll on September 13 Clinton obtained only 42.0%, while Trump obtained 58.0%.

Results vs. other polls

Trump currently achieves 55.3% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in Missouri. Compared to his numbers in the Emerson poll Trump's poll average is 1.9 percentage points better. This margin is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The current PollyVote expects Trump to gain 54.2% of the two-party vote in Missouri. That is, the combined PollyVote is 0.8 points above his polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin suggests that this difference is negligible.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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