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Missouri: Crosstab model shows Trump in the lead

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The Crosstab model provided an updated forecast of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will collect 44.4% of the two-party vote share in Missouri, whereas Trump will win 55.6%. In comparison, on November 4 Trump was predicted to garner 55.5% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Hence, one should not rely too much on the results of an individual econometric model. Rather than relying on results from single models, the best practice is to use combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates different methods and data.

Results compared to other econometric models

Trump currently runs at 0.0% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models in Missouri. Relative to his numbers in the Crosstab model Trump's econometric model average is 55.6 percentage points lower.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The latest PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 54.2% of the two-party vote in Missouri. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 1.4 percentage points less compared to the results of the Crosstab model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 8.3 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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