Today, Polly predicts that Clinton will end up with 52.7% of the national two-party vote. This leaves 47.3% for Trump. There is a consensus currently dominating the six available component methods. Each of them predict a lead for Clinton.
Coming in closest to PollyVote's prediction are expert surveys with a vote share of 52.7% for Clinton. The prediction markets present the largest difference from PollyVote's forecast and predict Clinton to have 55.9% of the vote.
A trend favoring Clinton has appeared in the expectation polls, the prediction markets and the expert surveys. The trend continued for the longest time in the expert surveys — within 19 days Clinton's vote share has increased by 2.1 percentage points.
The econometric models forecast of 50.3% for the candidate of the Democratic party is rather low compared to previous elections. In fact, this is the method's lowest forecast at that time in the campaign since 2004, when John Kerry ran against George W. Bush. At that time, econometric models predicted a vote share of 46.2% for John Kerry.