On November 6, Western NE UniversityWestern NE University released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Massachusetts were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Western NE UniversityWestern NE University poll results
Of those who replied, 56.0% said that they would vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 26.0% declared that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from October 23 to November 2, among a random sample of 417 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-5.0 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls can incorporate substantial biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, the recommended strategy rely on combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
For the following comparison, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This procedure results in figures of 68.3% for Clinton and 31.7% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of Massachusetts polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 67.5%. This value is 0.8 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the Western NE UniversityWestern NE University poll. This deviation is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 65.2% of the two-party vote in Massachusetts. Hence, the combined PollyVote is 3.1 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's margin of error.