On November 6, Boston Globe/Suffolk released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Massachusetts were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
Boston Globe/Suffolk poll results
Of those who answered the question, 57.0% said that they will vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 25.0% revealed that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from October 24 to October 26, among a random sample of 500 likely voters. The margin of error is +/-4.4 points. This means that the poll results for the Republican and the Democratic candidate differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls may contain large biases, and should be interpreted with caution. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we convert the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 69.5% for Clinton and 30.5% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of Massachusetts polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 67.5%. This value is 2 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Boston Globe/Suffolk poll. This margin is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 65.2% of the two-party vote in Massachusetts. Hence, Polly's forecast is 4.3 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error shows that this deviation is negligible.