Results of a new poll administered by Goucher College were circulated on November 7. The poll asked respondents from Maryland for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Goucher College poll results
The results show that 58.0% of respondents would give their vote to former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 25.0% would vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from September 17 to September 20, among a random sample of 514 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-4.3 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be interpreted with caution, since they may incorporate substantial biases. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, one can convert them into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 69.9% for Clinton and 30.1% for Trump.
The poll compared with PollyVote's forecast
The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 65.4% of the two-party vote in Maryland. Hence, the combined PollyVote is 4.5 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus outside the poll's sampling error.