Goucher College published the results of a new poll on November 6. In this poll, respondents from Maryland were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
Goucher College poll results
The results show that 58.0% of respondents intend to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 25.0% plan to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from September 17 to September 20 with 514 likely voters. Considering the poll's error margin of +/-4.3 percentage points, the spread between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls can include large biases, and should be treated with caution. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, we convert them into shares of the two-party vote. The respective figures are 69.9% for Clinton and 30.1% for Trump.
Results compared to other polls
Clinton currently runs at 69.4% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in Maryland. This value is 0.5 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Goucher College poll. This deviation is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 65.7% of the two-party vote in Maryland. This means that the combined PollyVote is 4.2 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin suggests that this difference is insignificant.