Results of a new poll carried out by JMC Analytics were circulated on November 5. The poll asked respondents from Louisiana for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
JMC Analytics poll results
According to the results, 36.0% of interviewees will cast a ballot for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 52.0% would vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from May 5 to May 6 among 624 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.9 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Single polls can include substantial biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Rather than relying on results from single polls, one should consult combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on different methods and data.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, one can translate them into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 40.9% for Clinton and 59.1% for Trump. On September 24 Clinton obtained 43.8% in the JMC Analytics poll and Trump obtained only 56.3%.
Results compared to other polls
Trump currently achieves 59.5% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent polls in Louisiana. This value is 0.4 percentage points higher than his respective numbers in the JMC Analytics poll. This difference is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The current PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 58.6% of the two-party vote in Louisiana. Hence, Polly's prediction is 0.5 points below his polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus in line with the poll's sampling error.