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Louisiana: Crosstab model shows Trump in the lead

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The Crosstab model is included in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. The model currently forecasts a major vote share of 41.4% for Clinton, and 58.6% for Trump in Louisiana. In comparison, on November 3 Trump was predicted to collect 58.5% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, one should not be overly confident the results of an individual econometric model. Rather than trusting the results from single models, research in forecasting recommends to look at combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates different methods and data.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Louisiana sees Trump at 0.0% of the two-party vote. This value is 58.6 percentage points lower than his respective numbers in the Crosstab model. The latest PollyVote expects Trump to gain 58.6% of the two-party vote in Louisiana. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 11.3 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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