Results of a new poll conducted by WBUR/MassINC were distributed on November 6. The poll asked interviewees from Massachusetts for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
WBUR/MassINC poll results
Of those who replied, 57.0% said that they would vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 31.0% revealed that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from October 13 to October 16 with 502 likely voters. The margin of error is +/-4.4 points, which means that the poll results for Trump and Clinton differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Single polls may contain substantial errors, and should be treated with caution. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 64.8% for Clinton and 35.2% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of Massachusetts polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 67.5%. In comparison to her numbers in the WBUR/MassINC poll Clinton's poll average is 2.7 percentage points better. This difference is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's forecast
The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 65.3% of the two-party vote in Massachusetts. Hence, the PollyVote is 0.5 points above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin reveals that this difference is insignificant.