On November 6, Siena released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from New York were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
Siena poll results
Of those who answered the question, 54.0% said that they intend to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 30.0% revealed that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from October 13 to October 17 with 611 likely voters. The error margin is +/-4.6 points, which means that the poll results for the candidates of both parties differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they may incorporate large errors. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we convert Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The resulting figures are 64.3% for Clinton and 35.7% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in New York has Clinton at 62.5% of the two-party vote. This value is 1.9 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Siena poll. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The latest PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 63.2% of the two-party vote in New York. Hence, the combined PollyVote is 1.1 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's margin of error.