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Latest OpinionWorks poll in Maryland: Trump trails by a huge margin

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On November 6, OpinionWorks released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Maryland were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.

OpinionWorks poll results
54

Clinton

25

Trump

According to the results, 54.0% of respondents would give their vote to former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 25.0% plan to vote for businessman Donald Trump.

The poll was carried out between August 18 and August 30. The sample size was 754 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.6 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Hence, a good strategy is to not be too confident the results of an individual poll. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, the evidence-based approach is to look at combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on different methods and data.

To make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, you can convert them into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 68.4% for Clinton and 31.7% for Trump.

Results vs. other polls

Looking at an average of Maryland polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 69.5%. In comparison to her numbers in the OpinionWorks poll Clinton's poll average is 1.1 percentage points higher. This deviation is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The latest PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 66.0% of the two-party vote in Maryland. That is, the PollyVote forecast is 2.4 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus in line with the poll's sampling error.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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