Results of a new national poll administered by IBD/TIPP were released. The poll asked participants for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
IBD/TIPP poll results
Of those who responded, 46.0% said that they would vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 43.0% declared that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The phone poll was carried out from November 1 to November 4 with 804 likely voters. Taking into account the poll's error margin of +/-3.5 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. As a result, one should not rely too much on the results of an individual poll. Rather than relying on results from single polls, the recommended strategy use combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, one can convert them into shares of the two-party vote. The respective figures are 51.7% for Clinton and 48.3% for Trump. On November 2 Clinton obtained only 50.0% in the IBD/TIPP poll and Trump obtained 50.0%.
Results in comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls has Clinton at 51.9% of the two-party vote. Relative to her numbers in the IBD/TIPP poll Clinton's poll average is 0.2 percentage points better. This deviation is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The current PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 52.7% of the two-party vote. This means that Polly's combined forecast is 1.0 point above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's sampling error.