Results of a new national poll administered by IBD were released. The poll asked participants for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
IBD poll results
The results show that 45.0% of respondents said that they would give their vote to former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 44.0% plan to vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from November 2 to November 5 among 903 participants. There is a sampling error of +/-3.3 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be interpreted with caution, as they often incorporate large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, one should rely on combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
For the following analysis, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The corresponding figures are 50.6% for Clinton and 49.4% for Trump. On November 4 Clinton received 51.7% in the IBD poll and Trump received only 48.3%.
Results in comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls sees Clinton at 51.8% of the two-party vote. This value is 1.2 percentage points higher than her corresponding numbers in the IBD poll. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's forecast
The latest PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 52.6% of the two-party vote. This means that the PollyVote is 2.0 points above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error reveals that this difference is insignificant.