Results of a new national poll conducted by ABC/Post were published. The poll asked interviewees for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
ABC/Post poll results
The results show that 49.0% of respondents intend to cast a ballot for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 44.0% intend to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted via phone from November 1 to November 4, among a random sample of 1685 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-2.4 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be regarded with caution, because they may contain substantial errors. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, you can translate them into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 52.7% for Clinton and 47.3% for Trump. In the most recent ABC/Post poll on November 3 Clinton received only 52.1%, while Trump received 47.9%.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton currently achieves 51.8% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent polls. In comparison to her numbers in the ABC/Post poll Clinton's poll average is 0.9 percentage points worse. This deviation is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's forecast
The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 52.6% of the two-party vote. This means that Polly's prediction is 0.1 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error shows that this difference is negligible.