ABC published the results of a new national poll. In this poll, interviewees were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
ABC poll results
The results show that 49.0% of participants would give their vote to former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 45.0% are going to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted between November 2 and November 5. The sample size was 1937 participants. The sampling error is +/-2.5 percentage points, which means that the poll results for the Democratic and the Republican candidate do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Single polls may contain substantial errors, and should be interpreted with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, one should rely on combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses different methods and data.
For the following comparison, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This procedure results in values of 52.1% for Clinton and 47.9% for Trump. To compare: 52.7% was obtained by Clinton in the ABC poll on November 4, for Trump this result was only 47.3%.
Results in comparison to other polls
Clinton is currently at 51.8% of the two-party vote in an average of recent polls. In comparison to her numbers in the ABC poll Clinton's poll average is 0.3 percentage points lower. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's forecast
The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 52.5% of the two-party vote. Hence, Polly's combined forecast is 0.4 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus in line with the poll's margin of error.