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Kentucky: Crosstab model shows Trump in the lead

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The Crosstab model released an updated prediction of the election outcome. It currently forecasts a major vote share of 38.1% for Clinton, and 61.9% for Trump in Kentucky. In comparison, on November 5 Trump was still predicted to obtain 62.9% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, one should not be too confident the results of an individual econometric model. At least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The current PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 61.6% of the two-party vote in Kentucky. The results of the Crosstab model for Trump are thus 0.3 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Kentucky.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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