The Issues and Leaders model is captured in the index models component of the PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 52.4% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will win 47.6%. In comparison, on November 4, Clinton was predicted to win 52.5% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Individual index models often contain large errors, and should be interpreted with caution. Rather, one should examine how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results compared to other index models
An average of recent index models sees Clinton at 53.6% of the two-party vote. Relative to her numbers in the Issues and Leaders index model Clinton's index model average is 1.2 percentage points better.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The latest PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 52.7% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 0.3 percentage points more compared to the results of the Issues and Leaders model.