The Issues and Leaders model published an updated forecast of the election result. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 52.3% for Clinton, and 47.7% for Trump. In comparison, on November 5 Trump was predicted to gain 47.6% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Individual index models may include large errors, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Rather than relying on results from single index models, forecasting research recommends to consult combined index models or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon different methods and data.
Comparison to other index models
An average of recent index models has Clinton at 53.6% of the two-party vote. This value is 1.3 percentage points higher than her corresponding numbers in the Issues and Leaders index model.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The current PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 52.6% of the two-party vote. The results of the Issues and Leaders model for Clinton are thus 0.3 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.