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Issues and Leaders model: Clinton is in the lead


The Issues and Leaders model enters the index models component of the PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 52.3% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will end up with 47.7%.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single index models, because they sometimes contain large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single index models, the best practice is to rely on combined index models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which uses different data.

Comparison to other index models

Clinton is currently at 53.6% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent index models. Compared to her numbers in the Issues and Leaders index model Clinton's index model average is 1.3 percentage points higher.

The Issues and Leaders model compared with PollyVote's prediction

The latest PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 52.6% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 0.3 percentage points more compared to the results of the Issues and Leaders model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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