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Issue-index model: Clinton is in the lead

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The Issue-index model enters the index models component of the PollyVote. The model currently forecasts a major vote share of 56.4% for Clinton, and 43.6% for Trump. In comparison, on November 4, Clinton was predicted to gain 56.7% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single index models, since they can contain large errors. Rather, one should examine how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other index models

An average of recent index models has Clinton at 53.6% of the two-party vote. This value is 2.8 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Issue-index index model.

The Issue-index model compared with PollyVote's prediction

The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 52.7% of the two-party vote. The results of the Issue-index model for Clinton are thus 3.7 percentage points above the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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