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Iowa: DeSart model shows Clinton in the lead

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The DeSart model provided an updated forecast of the election result. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 50.6% for Clinton, and 49.4% for Trump in Iowa.

Historically, Iowa has been a purple state, in which no single party has had overwhelming support to clinch that state's electoral college votes. Hence, forecasts here are of particular interest.

Putting the results in context

Single models should be interpreted with caution, because they can contain substantial biases. At the very least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

The DeSart model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

The current PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 50.3% of the two-party vote in Iowa. The results of the DeSart model for Clinton are thus 0.3 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Iowa.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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