The DeSart model enters the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will garner 50.6% of the two-party vote share in Iowa, while Trump will win 49.4%.
Iowa is traditionally a swing state, where Democrats and Republicans have often won similar levels of support among voters. Therefore, the election outcome in that state is viewed as critical in determining the overall result of the presidential election.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single models, because they sometimes contain large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single models, the evidence-based approach is to rely on combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes different methods and data.
The DeSart model compared with PollyVote's forecast
The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 50.4% of the two-party vote in Iowa. The results of the DeSart model for Clinton are thus 0.2 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Iowa.