Iowa: Crosstab model shows Trump in the lead

The Crosstab model enters the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 49.0% of the two-party vote share in Iowa, whereas Trump will win 51.0%. In comparison, on November 5 Trump was still predicted to collect 51.6% of the vote.

Historically, Iowa has been a battleground state, in which neither the Democrats nor the Republicans have had overwhelming support to clinch that state's electoral college votes. This is why forecasts in this state are of particular importance.

Putting the results in context

Single models should be interpreted with caution, because they may contain substantial biases. Rather than relying on results from single models, the evidence-based approach is to look at combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

The Crosstab model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

The most recent PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 49.6% of the two-party vote in Iowa. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 1.4 percentage points less compared to the results of the Crosstab model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.