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Iowa: Crosstab model shows Trump in the lead

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The Crosstab model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 48.4% for Clinton, and 51.6% for Trump in Iowa. In comparison, on November 3 Trump was predicted to gain 51.1% of the vote.

In Iowa, the election outcome is often close. Therefore, the state is commonly considered a swing state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single models, because they often contain large errors. Rather, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

Looking at an average of Iowa econometric models, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 0.0%. Relative to his numbers in the Crosstab model Trump's econometric model average is 51.6 percentage points worse.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The current PollyVote expects Trump to gain 49.7% of the two-party vote in Iowa. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 1.9 percentage points less compared to the results of the Crosstab model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 4.3 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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