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Idaho: Crosstab model shows Trump in the lead

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The Crosstab model enters the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will collect 36.5% of the two-party vote share in Idaho, whereas Trump will end up with 63.5%. In comparison, on November 3, Clinton was predicted to gain 37.4% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Single models should be interpreted with caution, because they may include substantial errors. Rather than relying on results from single models, research in forecasting recommends to consult combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

Looking at an average of Idaho econometric models, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 0.0%. This value is 63.5 percentage points lower than his corresponding numbers in the Crosstab model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The latest PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 64.2% of the two-party vote in Idaho. The results of the Crosstab model for Trump are thus 0.7 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in Idaho. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 16.2 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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