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Holbrook & DeSart model shows Clinton in the lead

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The Holbrook & DeSart model published an updated prediction of the election outcome. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 53.0% for Clinton, and 47.0% for Trump. In comparison, on November 4, Clinton was predicted to collect 53.4% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Individual models may contain large biases, which is why they should be treated with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single models, research in forecasting recommends to consult combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which uses different data.

Results vs. other econometric models

Looking at an average of econometric models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 50.3%. This value is 2.7 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the Holbrook & DeSart model.

The Holbrook & DeSart model compared with PollyVote's prediction

The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 52.6% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 0.4 percentage points less compared to the results of the Holbrook & DeSart model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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