Hawaii: Crosstab model shows Clinton in the lead

The Crosstab model enters the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 65.6% of the two-party vote share in Hawaii, whereas Trump will win 34.4%. In comparison, on November 3 Trump was still predicted to obtain 35.3% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Hence, don't rely too much on the results of an individual econometric model. Rather than relying on results from single models, forecasting research recommends to rely on combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which uses different data.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Hawaii sees Clinton at 0.0% of the two-party vote. In comparison to her numbers in the Crosstab model Clinton's econometric model average is 65.6 percentage points worse.

The Crosstab model compared with PollyVote's prediction

The latest PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 69.7% of the two-party vote in Hawaii. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 4.1 percentage points more compared to the results of the Crosstab model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 12.9 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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