FOX published the results of a new national poll. In this poll, respondents were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
FOX poll results
The results show that 48.0% of interviewees plan to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 44.0% plan to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted via phone from November 3 to November 6 among 1295 likely voters. Considering the poll's margin of error of +/-2.8 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they may incorporate large errors. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we convert Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 52.2% for Clinton and 47.8% for Trump. On October 17 Clinton received 53.9% in the FOX poll and Trump received only 46.2%.
Comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 51.9%. In comparison to her numbers in the FOX poll Clinton's poll average is 0.3 percentage points worse. This deviation is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The latest PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 52.5% of the two-party vote. This means that Polly's combined forecast is 0.3 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's margin of error.